What official data can and cannot tell you about people from your country

Many readers want to know how many people from their own country have moved to a given destination. Available data answers this only in part. This guide explains where such numbers come from and how to read them. It does not give figures for any named country, because we have not yet verified origin-and-destination tables. Where we have no verified data, we say so rather than fill the gap.

Where "from my country" numbers come from

Most of them are produced by the destination country: from a census, a population register, a residence-permit database or a survey. The origin country usually does not count people who left. A French demographic institute makes the point that immigrant stocks are easier to count through census birthplace data, while emigrant stocks are harder and need data assembled from other countries' censuses. It describes emigration as the weakest area, noting that population registers often capture fewer than half of departures.

So a figure for "people from country X living in country Y" is really "people country Y recorded as coming from X, under Y's definition".

Birthplace, citizenship, or both?

The UN Population Division uses place of birth where available and citizenship otherwise. The two give different answers. Someone born in X who became a citizen of Y counts as "from X" under birthplace and disappears under citizenship. A child of migrants born in Y counts under some citizenship rules and not others. Always find out which test a table uses before comparing two countries.

Small origin countries and missing origins

The UN documentation says origin estimates are likely to undercount small origin countries, because destination countries' lists of origins are not always complete. If your country is small, or sits in a group such as "other", a table may understate people from it. It also reports that data coverage is thinnest in Central and Southern Asia, with imputation for some countries. We cannot tell from the pages we read how that applies to any particular origin.

Two countries rarely agree

Eurostat explains that what the sending country reports as emigrants should roughly match what the receiving country reports as immigrants from there, but national practices and data sources make them differ. When someone compares "people who left X" with "people who arrived from X", expect a gap.

Time rules change the headline

Eurostat counts immigration as establishing usual residence for at least 12 months, actual or intended, and lists countries with different time criteria. A student on a short course or a seasonal worker may appear in one country's data and not another's. Series breaks, which Eurostat flags, can create sudden jumps that reflect a change in method, not a change in behaviour.

What the numbers cannot tell you

• Whether you qualify. Origin data describes others, not your documents. A missing or low figure for your country is not evidence that you are ineligible.
• Whether a route is open to your nationality. That depends on the destination's rules and on your individual case.
• Whether people "like you" succeed. Statistics on people who moved say nothing about those who applied and were refused.
• Whether a trend will continue.

A better use of origin data

Treat origin figures as background on how large a community already living in a destination might be, and check the definition first. For your own plan, begin with your passport country, your goal and your documents, then read the route page and the official source behind it. Distinguish your passport country from your country of residence: the two can affect different rules, and official tables may group people by either.

How we will add origin data

When we show anything specific to an origin country, it will name the table, the measure (stock or flow), the definition (birthplace or citizenship), the year and the link, and it will say plainly where figures are missing. Until then, this guide is the only thing we state on the subject.